It’s week 1 and you’re excited to finally watch all the hard work you did over the offseason pay off. But wait, what the hell is going on in the Arizona game? Your prized number 3 overall pick David Johnson has no targets? He’s ran straight up the middle how many times? You’ve pulled out how much of your hair? This my friends is what a fantasy nightmare looks like, and it comes in many forms. A coach attempting to run an offense from the Jurassic Era. A quarterback who is unable to competently move the ball downfield. A coach refusing to utilize the obvious best player at a position (looking at you B-Hole). Every fantasy player has experienced situations like these, so how exactly do we minimize the risk of finding ourselves in one during the 2019-2020 NFL season?
Competent Offense Score
After researching years past and the warning signs of potential fantasy nightmares, I came up with the concept of Competent Offense Score. The broad strokes summary for those who don’t like math is that it combines a bunch of factors like head coach and quarterback to provide an overall rating as to how good an offense should be. Every team around the league was given a score of 0, 1, or 2 in each category. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer for example was given a 0 because he’s a defensive head coach and doesn’t have much of a say as to what happens on offense. Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt got a 1 because he’s a solid coach whose presence helps his team. Packers star quarterback Aaron Rodgers received a 2 because he’s a transcendent talent capable of driving a high powered offense.
After head coach, quarterback, and offensive coordinator, the other categories are a little more abstract. First of all, there’s the annoying usage category. If I anticipate unpredictable running back by committees or target distributions, that’s worth -1. If we’re talking about someone like Adam Gase who seems to intentionally make life hell for his fantasy owners, he gets a -2. Next we’ve got the offensive weapons category. A team with a dearth of talent at the skill positions like Miami gets a 0, while a team loaded with talent like the Browns after their trade for OBJ gets a 2.
If a team is returning their quarterback and main offensive coach, we have a pretty good idea as to what the offense is going to look like. This is taken into account with the returning coach and quarterback bonuses. Take for example the New England Patriots, who are returning Brady, McDaniels, and Belichick. They get a 1 for the returning quarterback bonus, which was Brady’s score from the quarterback category. The Patriots also receive a 3 for the returning coach bonus. 2 points for the main offensive coach McDaniels (his score from earlier) and a point for Belichick (half his score from earlier), the other coach.
The Tiers
So there you have it, the Competent Offense Scores for every team around the league here in mid March. As you can see, I broke the list down into tiers of what you can expect from these offenses. First of all, we’ve got the elite tier (green). These are offenses that you are going to be genuinely excited to watch every week if you just so happen to have stock in them. Next there’s the good tier (yellow). These are offenses that you are going to be okay with watching. They’ll move the ball pretty well and score at a reasonable rate. While some of these offenses like the Packers and Bucs have the potential to be elite, returning zero coaches provides enough risk to keep them out of that next tier.
This is the point where we start to slum it a bit with the risky tier (orange). While you and I both will probably end up owning players from these offenses, they all have a ton of warning signs telling us that we could be looking at a putrid offense we want no part of. In other words, feel free to draft some elite players like Zeke or some potential breakouts like Kerryon in this tier but understand the risk in doing so. That brings us to the fantasy nightmare tier. Relying upon any of these offenses is going to be flat out traumatizing, and I can confidently say that I won’t draft any player from these teams. In fantasy football, talent just isn’t as important as situation, so I don’t care that Antonio Brown might be the best receiver of all time. When you draft him, you’re also drafting Gruden, Olson, their awful offensive line, and the fluctuating target share that made Amari Cooper so infuriating to own last year.
A Competent Offense Score Draft
Using FantasyPros’ mock draft simulator, I took a stab at drafting a team with Competent Offense Score in mind. This was a 10 team PPR league and I picked 9th. As you can see, my weekly starters at quarterback, receiver and running back all play on offenses that are in the elite tier. On the bench however, I have guys from every tier besides fantasy nightmare. This is because I really like the talent of Kerryon Johnson for example and was willing to assume the risk of the offense he plays in at that point of the draft. The annoying usage factor was also why I took Rashaad Penny as a late round flier. Penny is obviously stuck behind Chris Carson, but Pete Carroll has been known to be unpredictable in terms of distributing carries. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if Penny ends up being the back to own in Seattle, so he’s worth the gamble at that price. At the end of the day, I think we can all agree that this team looks solid to say the least.
An Incompetent Offense Score Draft
The team above was drafted in the exact same way as the previous team, besides the fact that I tried to draft only players from the bottom 2 tiers. Throughout the draft, I made sure to pick players who only differed in the rankings by a few slots. Roughly half the players were even ranked higher than the equivalent pick on the first team. When you look at the roster however, it is pretty obviously inferior. Take for example first round pick Le’Veon Bell, who was ranked just 2 spots below Julio Jones, our previous first round pick. Yes, Bell is an incredible talent that has even been the consensus number 1 overall pick in years past. Unfortunately for people who draft him however, he is now part of a Jets team with an awful offensive line, and a coach who could only be part of a high powered offense when Peyton Manning was his quarterback. To make matters worse, Gase might be planning on giving a large chunk of the carries to someone else. The bottom line is that Bell and most of the other players on this team are stuck in horrible situations, and that’s why you should avoid them.
Remember Why you Play
So why should you take into account Competent Offense Score when you draft this year? We all know the ultimate goal in fantasy football is to win a title. It feels so great to have those bragging rights over your friends, knowing that your hard work before and during the season paid off. That being said we also need to remember that winning isn’t everything. The main reason we play fantasy football is to have fun. I know for me personally, sitting down and watching football has completely changed because of fantasy. It helps me care about games that I previously wouldn’t have, and makes me much more engaged overall. Let me tell you though, I was not having fun last year when I watched Mike McCoy repeatedly call runs up the middle for my first round pick David Johnson.
If you come back after your draft and see mostly green or yellow when you look at your roster, you’re going to be in for a fun season. When you turn on a Browns game and see Odell haul in a deep touchdown, he’ll be on your team. When Todd Gurley rips off a long touchdown run, he’ll be on your team. Following these high powered offenses throughout the year and feeling like you have a personal interest in their success is just exhilarating when compared to watching a team like the Jets. So come draft day this season, please for the love of God don’t put yourself into a fantasy nightmare, and use Competent Offense Score when you’re making those tough decisions. You’ll thank me come January when you’re hoisting a title with a big smile on your face.
nbanflnobody 