Intro
Whats going on everybody! I know, I know, I know. Today was supposed to be How to Win Your League 2018. Although that is what I originally wanted to do, I just don’t have the time this week as I want it to be absolutely perfect for you guys. My draft is this Wednesday Night, so it’ll absolutely be out before then. In the meantime however, we are going to get into a few overs and under that jumped out to me when I took a look at the list. So without further ado, let’s get right into it.
New England Patriots – 11 Wins – Hammer the Over!!!
Death, taxes, and the Patriots winning 12 games. The fact that Patriots Haters everywhere have actually made the over under fall to 11 measly games honestly made me laugh the first time I saw it. As anyone who has followed this offseason knows, the Patriots play in easily the worst division in the NFL. The Bills were solid last year, but after giving away their very solid quarterback and attempting to replace him with a rookie who can’t hit the side of the barn, I don’t think they are going to be very good. Miami is always a mess, and the Jets are going to be the Jets for a few more years until Darnold gets going. Their division schedule alone gives them 5-6 easy wins, so they are most likely going to be halfway there without really having to do anything.
Want some proof about how much of a lock this is? To find the last time that the Patriots finished with 11 wins or worse, you have to go all the way back to 2009 where they went 10 and 6. For those of you who don’t remember, the Jets and Dolphins were probably better than they’ve been in the past 10 years that season and Brady was rusty, coming off of his ACL injury. So before you are one of the morons who bets the under here, just think about what is more likely to happen. Is the dynasty over? Have the personal issues between Brady and Belichick become too much for the Patriots to handle? Or are they going to keep on doing what they have done on a year to year basis since Tom’s knee has been healthy? Yeah, I think the over is probably a good bet.
Arizona Cardinals – 5.5 Wins – Hammer the Over!!!!
Although I wanted to lead off with the Patriots due to the fact that they are my favorite team and they have the historical data to back it up, this one also seems a little strange. The Cardinals are a very good football team, coming off of an 8 win season. Yes, their division is very difficult and they just lost their head coach, but new offensive coordinator Mike McCoy isn’t the worst replacement of Arians’ Offensive prowess. The biggest change you are going to see in this team however is under center, as Sam Bradford or Sammy Sleeves as he likes to be called takes over.
For those of you who didn’t really understand the contract he got signed to, you probably weren’t watching football the year where he broke the completion percentage record as a member of the Vikings. Is he injury prone? Absolutely. Even if Bradford doesn’t make it through the season, they have a guy who was my number 1 quarterback in this years draft, Josh Rosen, backing him up. So to review, this team lost their coach, their division got a little bit tougher, but they went from having absolutely brutal quarterback play to solid quarterback play, and they’re going to lose 3 more games than they did last year? Yeah, give me the over.
Jacksonville Jaguars – 9 Wins – Hammer the Under!!!
I hate to do Blake dirty in the picture, but it honestly just had to be done. And quite honestly, I don’t think he gives a shit what I think. Regardless, I believe the Jaguars made a huge mistake giving Bortles that massive contract extension. I just don’t think he is a very good quarterback, and that deal is going to look absolutely awful after a couple of years. To make matters worse for the Jaguars, everything went perfectly last year for them from a scheduling standpoint. They played the Texans twice without Watson, and the Colts twice without Andrew Luck. Now both of those guys come back, and the Titans, who swept them last year by the way, have an improved coaching staff.
In terms of the rest of their schedule, the Jaguars now have to play 3 teams like the Patriots instead of just taking on the last place team due to their unusual first place finish last year. Look, I get it. Sacksonville is a cool nickname and their players have a ton of personality. Just don’t be shocked when the Jaguars are a 7-9, 6-10 team this year. People who are picking them to win the Super Bowl should be checked into a mental institution. The bottom line is that everything went perfectly for the Jaguars last season, and they only managed 10 wins. So unless you think everything is going to go perfectly for them again, something that never happens in the NFL, then it would be smart to hammer the under here.
Wrapping Up
I’m sure that some of you absolutely disagree with some of these picks, and you absolutely should. Theres a reason that they play the games, and nobody can honestly tell you what’s going to happen, see what I did there? Am I right? Am I wrong? Well we’re going to find out pretty damn soon. We only have 1 more Sunday without football, and no I don’t count college. So everyone out there just try and make it through these next couple of weeks. Football season and the fall in general is my favorite time of year, and we are just days away. And remember to stay tuned for Win Your League 2018, hopefully coming out tomorrow night!
nbanflnobody 