Win Your League Primer 2018

Intro

Congratulations everyone! We have almost made it out of the abyss that is the brutal time period between NBA Free Agency and the kickoff of the NFL Season. Today, we have the penultimate chapter of our 4 week fantasy football bender that we’ve been on as of late. In reality, it could have easily been a 3 week bender, but the last and most critical portion is too long for one blog. I mean, I could have hit you guys with a 5,000 word or so piece this week, but I know you all have short attention spans, so I figured I’d break it up a bit. So anyways, next week is going to be Win Your League 2018, where I am going to go step by step through my draft strategy that has led to me never missing the playoffs in every single league I’ve ever participated in. Anything can happen in the playoffs, and it can honestly be pretty random who actually wins the title, so that is honestly the only real consistency you can ask for. Furthermore, I have given a similar instruction guide to my aunt, who knows absolutely nothing about football, for the past 2 seasons and surprise, surprise, she won her work league both years. So if you are new to fantasy or an experienced player who is looking for a couple of pointers by someone who has had pretty substantial success over the years then it should be great for you.

That being said, I don’t just want to tell you guys what to do. As important as it may seem to win your league, you can’t forget what fantasy football is all about. That of course is having fun! If you don’t enjoy it, then you honestly shouldn’t be playing. So understanding that, me telling you exactly who to pick in every situation and not giving you the reasoning behind it would make your draft like filling out a form instead of an exciting experience. Hell, if you want to just ignore the advice of everyone, all the more power to you! But for some of us, myself included, stuff like fantasy football just isn’t very fun unless you are winning. So for all of you ultra competitive personalities out there, this is exactly what you’re looking for. Oh, and one last point I need to make about why you should try listening to me this season and not a more prominent fantasy writer. Due to the fact that I don’t have a job riding on these picks or have any other agenda besides telling you guys what I think is the best strategy, I can take a ton more risks than guys like Matthew Berry. There’s also the fact that come draft day, following a little bit of a different strategy can give you a huge edge. So with all this being said, let’s get right into it, and talk about some of my major philosophies about drafting in fantasy football.

Disclaimer!!! Everything I say here has to do with standard ESPN PPR Leagues due to the fact that it is the format I’ve always played!!!!

Handcuff Those Top Running Backs

Throughout the fantasy football community, there has been a ton of debate about whether or not to handcuff top running backs. Although I don’t think there is a definite yes or no answer, you really just have to break it down on a case by case basis. Basically, you have to determine why you were so high on that particular running back. For example, when it comes to a guy who I wrote about previously in Dalvin Cook, the reason I am interested in him has less to do with his talent as a player and more to do with his position in the Minnesota Offense. Don’t get me wrong here though. Dalvin Cook is an incredibly talented player, but the main reason I want to roster him early in drafts is due to the fact that he is the unquestioned lead back in an offense that I believe will score a ton of points. That leads to a shitload of scoring opportunities and many, many fantasy points. Also, all of these top guys are dual threat running backs who will be heavily involved in the game plan regardless of game flow. All that being said, if something were happen to Cook, Latavius Murray would instantly become a top 10 running back week to week. Although I definitely don’t think Murray is the same talent as Cook, I believe that him taking a lead role in the Vikings Offense is an incredibly valuable fantasy asset, and it can quite honestly save your season. Losing a guy like Cook to injury could absolutely kill your season, and you have to be prepared by having a contingency plan on your roster who can get you value out of a bad situation.

Where it gets confusing is that you sometimes shouldn’t get a handcuff for your top running back due to a couple of potential reasons. The first being that the only reason you are interested in the running back is pure talent. While I can’t really think of a good example of that this season, a great one was all those years where Adrian Peterson was on the Vikings. Those teams weren’t amazing offenses on their own to say the least, and the only reason Peterson performed so well was because he was that much better than any other back in the league. In that situation, you’re completely hosed if Peterson goes down, and you’d be better off with a mid to late round starter on another team than a player lacking talent being forced into a role he just can’t fill. The other situation is if you don’t have a good idea about who the handcuff actually is. A good example of this is with Bell in Pittsburgh. After Le’Veon, the Steelers have depending on who you ask 2 or 3 running backs who are equally capable of absorbing his role. Due to there not being a huge gap in ability, the Steelers would be likely to go with a committee approach instead of just plugging someone directly into Bell’s role. If this were to happen, the entire backfield would pretty much lose value, and having any of them on your roster would be a waste of a valuable roster spot. What if you draft someone I didn’t cover in these 2 examples you ask? Don’t worry about it because I’ll tell you the handcuffs you want for each back next week!

Don’t Waste Late Round Picks on Committee Running Backs

After taking one look at my top 30 rankings, you’ll realize that I advise going heavy on running back early this season. To be perfectly honest, I only feel remotely confident about 15 running backs joining my roster as either RB1 or RB2. That means in a 10 team league, there are going to be 5 teams at a minimum that don’t get 2 of those guys. If you miss out on these sure and in some cases sureish things at running back early, you are going to be forced to waste some late round picks taking dart throws at guys who you realistically won’t feel good about starting in a given week. Let’s take for example the man in the above picture, Rex Burkehead. Burkehead is currently ranked at 73 overall in PPR leagues according to ESPN. For those of you who didn’t watch a ton of Patriots football or own Burkehead in a league last season, I did both of those things, let me tell you why there is optimism about him. People for some reason think that he is going to be the lead back in this offense due to the fact that he was their goal line back last year and Dion Lewis is out of town. Now, let me tell you why those people are wrong. First, there is the fact that Bill Belichick drafted Sony Michel in the first round, something that he hasn’t done since a guy named Laurence Maroney.

Although the Maroney pick was an absolute disaster, he was the Patriots’ lead back in his rookie year presumably because he was taken in the first round. Belichick doesn’t just waste first round picks, so expect Michel to be the lead guy. But Burkehead still will get the bulk of the goal line carries though right? Wrong again ESPN. Last season, Mike Gillislee was brought in to fill that goal line back role in their offense. The only reason why he didn’t late in the season when Burkehead had the job was due to injury. This season however, Gillislee is back and healthy. To make things even worse, the Patriots signed a guy who I think is incredibly underrated in Jeremy Hill over the offseason, and he looked really good in their preseason game. The bottom line here is that Burkehead at best is part of a 4-5 headed running back monster in New England and he is considered one of the better late round fliers at running back. So all you guys who decide to wait on running back can have fun reaching for guys on Burkehead due to your lack of depth at the position. I on the other hand will be rounding out my roster with guys like Randall Cobb, Marquise Goodwin, and other valuable receiver options available late. At the end of the day, receiver is incredibly deep and running back just isn’t, so load up early or face the consequences.

Coaching and Scheme in General Matters

Every year, there are certain teams where I wouldn’t touch any of their players with a 50 foot pole unless they absolutely fell on my lap. When I watch football and am rooting for my teams, I want to ultimately watch offenses I enjoy watching, and not be forced to watch talented players destined for mediocrity due to their bad coaching staff and moronic offensive schemes. Unfortunately for the guy pictured above, he falls into this category as does any player on the Cleveland Browns. If all you Browns Fans out there thought you were safe in a fantasy football blog, you were wrong. I still to this day can’t figure out how Hue Jackson has managed to keep his job. It truly gets me angry mainly due to the fact that I honestly think I can do better. Although Landry is an incredibly talented player coming off of his best season, I am not putting myself in a situation where I am reliant upon Hue Jackson. At Landry’s current ranking of 43, I would prefer Robert Woods for example, a reliable possession receiver in his own right going over 10 picks later according to ESPN. Although Landry probably is more talented than Woods, the latter is the 1B receiving option in Sean McVay’s offense while Landry is the 1B receiving option in Hue Jackson’s offense. So everyone out there can have fun pulling their hair out watching the Browns while I kick back, relax and watch the high flying LA offense and all the points Woods racks up.

Target Possession Type Receivers Over Deep Threats

Due to the fact that I largely wait on receiver until the 3rd round at the absolute earliest, I tend to be choosing guys who normally go as WR2s as my WR1s. Someone who I seem to end up with in every single mock I do on ESPN is Larry Fitzgerald. Although I am not crazy about his coaching downgrade from Bruce Arians to Mike McCoy, McCoy has proven to be a serviceable coordinator that I can live with. To make things better however, Fitzgerald is actually one of the better possession receivers in the NFL and year after year manages to rack up tons of catches, something that is incredibly important in PPR Scoring. Even with the coaching downgrade, there is still reason to believe that Fitzgerald is in line for his best season in years. Sam Bradford is most likely the best and most accurate quarterback that Larry has played with since Kurt Warner was in town. Don’t believe me? Go look up the completion percentage in a season record. You know what, I’ll save you some time. Bradford won the award in his last healthy season. Speaking of health, even if something does happen to Bradford, their backup, my favorite rookie QB in this loaded class in Josh Rosen, isn’t the worst plan B. The bottom line is that when I have Fitzgerald as my WR1, I know that I can expect solid production week to week due to the fact that he catches so many passes.

In contrast, I tend to stay away from guys like T.Y. Hilton, who is much more reliant on the deep ball and ultimately catches less passes. Although I do think the Colts will look better with Andrew Luck back at the helm, there is no guarantee that Luck stays healthy throughout the year, and we already saw how irrelevant Hilton becomes when Luck isn’t on the field. Even with Luck in the fold however, Hilton will have games where he wins you your week, and games where he loses you the week. Due to his reliance on deep completions and lack of overall receptions week to week, Hilton may end the season with a similar point total as Fitzgerald, but he will most likely be a lot less consistent. It is all a matter of personal preference, but I would much rather have a reliable asset like Fitzgerald where I know what I’m getting week to week than the absolute roller coaster ride you get from owning T.Y. Hilton. Fitzgerald isn’t exactly what they call a sexy pick, but be fine with your league mates calling you dumb and snagging Hilton. You’ll be the one with the last laugh.

Wrapping Up

So there you have it, a few general philosophies I have about fantasy football. As I said earlier, there are a few smaller things here and there, but I can just slide them into the official Win Your League 2018 Blog. So read through this, and do some mock drafts with these mantras in mind. I bet that you’ll already start seeing some improvements in your feeling about each and every team you draft. Next week however is when we get into the real nitty gritty, so don’t touch that dial. We’ll talk about Gurley vs Bell, when to draft Gronk and all of the other pressing questions that surround the 2018-2019 fantasy football season. So everyone buckle up, because this is going to be fun!