Intro
What’s up guys! Due to all the good feedback I got from my last fantasy football themed blog, I’m going to go down that road again today. Although I didn’t watch a ton of preseason football the other night with the exception of the first half of my Patriots, I did get a chance to watch 5 minute highlight reels from all the other games. Man, am I just excited that football is back and I don’t have to keep forcing myself to watch the Red Sox. That being said, as I try to pull meaningful analysis out of these relatively meaningless games, there is one major thing to keep in mind about preseason football in general. We need to remember that offenses are going to look really, really, really, really good in the preseason. In the regular season, defenses make and execute game plans for the specific team they are facing. For example, if you are playing a guy like Russell Wilson, the focus of the game plan may be to keep him contained in the pocket. In the preseason however, defenses don’t create specific game plans for the teams they are facing.The result is a pretty much vanilla defensive scheme that makes it very easy to run offense and move the ball in general.
The bottom line is that when you see rookies moving the ball down the field with ease and complete every pass they throw, try not to overreact too much. In addition to that advantage, rookie quarterbacks like Mayfield and Josh Allen typically don’t start the game for their respective teams. Their playing time taking place in the second half means that they are largely facing backups and sometimes guys who don’t have a shot in hell at making the 53 man roster. Although Mayfield looked pretty good against the Giants, just try to remember that come week 1, he is going to be facing players who are capable of starting in an NFL Game and not just guys who are going to be working at Chilis in a few months. While quarterback analysis may be a little futile, the position group that the preseason can tell us a lot about is running back. I find it incredibly important to see just how these rookie running backs stack up against seasoned veterans who are out there to start the games. Also, due to the fact that half the battle now is predicting playing time, how running backs look in the preseason can show us both who looks like the better player and who the team thinks is the better player. So while we realize that offensive production may be a little bit inflated, let’s get right into some things about those rookie running backs that jumped out to me the other night.
I’m Not Counting on Michel
Every year, I seem to go down the same road when it comes to drafting running backs in fantasy football. As anyone who reads me knows, I am a die hard Patriots Fan. Therefore, I usually try to get a couple of guys on my fantasy team who play for my real team to make watching the games more fun. I usually do this in the form of drafting whoever I think the best running back is in New England. Unfortunately for me however, I haven’t had much success with this, as the last time I actually hit on a Patriots running back was Stevan Ridley. So how is it possible that the running back for a team that is consistently a top offense in the NFL is so damn unreliable in fantasy football? Well folks, let me tell you. You know that really irritating running back by committee that everyone and their mother is using these days? Well the head coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick, invented and popularized the running back by committee approach. The thought being that instead of having one star running back, you can have several B to B+ running backs who excel in different situations.
For example, the Patriots usually have a receiving back, a power back, and an in between the 20s back. When the Patriots drafted Georgia’s Sony Michel this offseason however, I started to think that this year was going to be different. Michel is just one hell of a player, and I figured that Bill Belichick may be about to turn the backfield over to a clear top dog so to speak. Although I knew that he wouldn’t play absolutely every down, I expected him to get somewhere around 15-20 touches a game. In the Patriots’ Fantasy friendly offense, that easily would make him a top 10 running back, and an absolute steal in the middle rounds. That being said, I was really discouraged by what I saw the other night. Jeremy Hill, a guy who was all but left for dead last year in Cincinnati, is going to be a factor in this backfield. For those who aren’t very familiar with his play style, he is a 1 cut back who runs with power but has the burst to gash the defense for 20-25 yard runs on a consistent basis. The funny thing is, Hill reminds me a ton of his predecessor both at LSU and in New England, Stevan Ridley.
As I alluded to earlier, Ridley had a ton of success in New England before fumbles and an untimely ACL tear in his contract year derailed his Patriot and general NFL career. Bill Belichick has always liked power backs who don’t dance and get upfield, and that is exactly what Hill is. Aside from Hill, you have Burkehead, who Belichick really seems to like for some reason, Super Bowl Hero James White, and Game 1 star Mike Gillislee who all seem like legit threats to Michel’s playing time. If you put a gun to my head and make me pick who I think takes control of the backfield, I’d still go with Michel due to his huge talent edge, but I wouldn’t feel great about it. Michel had a ton of knee issues in college, and he’s already out due to a procedure where fluid was drained from his knee. With the Patriots knowing that they are going to make the playoffs as they do every year, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if they decide to be cautious with Michel, bringing him along slowly in order to make sure he is ready to be a factor when they need him come playoff time. The bottom line is that if you can get Michel as purely a wait and see bench player with him sliding in your draft due to injury, by all means pull the trigger. That being said, don’t put yourself in a position where you are reliant upon him, because all that will yield is frustration, and this is coming from a biased Patriots Fan.
I Feel so Bad for the Redskins
Last season was absolutely brutal for the Redskins. Although tons of teams use injuries as an excuse, the Redskins absolutely had my permission to do so last year. Seemingly all of their top offensive weapons and most importantly their offensive line sustained critical injuries early and often that made it impossible to field a competent unit. The issues were just as bad defensively, as I remember watching a game where the opposing quarterback was shredding Washington with no huddle because they didn’t have anyone able to play who knew how to audible defenses in the no huddle. It was something I had actually never seen before, and it is just crazy that plans A, B, C, D, and E were already injured. For all of us out there hoping that 2018 would be different for Washington, it doesn’t seem to be getting off to a good start.
On draft day, Redskins fans rejoiced when projected top pick Derrius Guice plummeted down the draft board and Washington selected him late in the 2nd round. Combining a stud power back like Guice with already established scat back Thompson would’ve given them one of the best duos in the league. Unfortunately however, Guice tore his ACL in their first preseason game against my Patriots. Fantasy football aside, I just feel horribly for the Redskins. Their promising rookie snuffed out for the year before we even see him on the field week 1. Guice was a guy who I was going to be targeting as a sleeper in a big way this season, but now we’re going to have to see another year of Rob Kelly. Poor Washington indeed.
Saquon is the Real Deal
When the Giants selected running back Saquon Barkley with the number 2 pick, I really didn’t like the move to say the least. With new head coach Pat Shurmur, confirmed quarterback guru and bright offensive mind, I thought it was an unbelievable opportunity for the franchise to insure they’d be in the mix for the foreseeable future. Letting Shurmur choose his quarterback and having the combination of say Sam Darnold and the guy who resurrected Case Keenum’s career on the Giants for the next decade seemed like a pretty great idea to me. Unfortunately for all you Giants Fans out there however, they decided to be a bit short sighted, and instead selected Saquon Barkley. Before everyone gets mad at me in the comments section, don’t get it twisted. I absolutely love Saquon Barkley, and think he is going to be one of the best backs in the league for a long time. That first run he had yesterday was jaw dropping to say the least. Certain backs out there go their whole careers without having a highlight reel run like that, and Saquon did it the first time he touched the ball in an NFL Game. Although I do hate the move longterm, man the short term is going to be fun.
In terms of Saquon’s Fantasy Prospects for the coming season, I would be completely fine with you pulling the trigger on him as early as 3rd overall. As I said earlier, I am incredibly high on Pat Shurmur. Watching the Vikings’ Offense last year, something I did quite a bit of because I had a large stake in McKinnon, was nothing short of unbelievable. Shurmur is definitely part of the McVay, Shanahan group of offensive play callers where it looks like they are playing chess, and other guys like Hue Jackson are playing checkers. As much as I love McKinnon though, he isn’t nearly the running back that Saquon Barkley is. I think that the Giants are going to be able to move the ball with ease this season, and I truly believe that they are going to be a force to be reckoned with. Expect a Rams type turn around for the G Men this season and for them to have a top scoring offense. If the Giants are going to be as good as I think they are, you are going to want Saquon on your team. The undisputed lead back in a high scoring offense is the dream, and that is exactly what he is. Extremely talented running back playing on one of the best offenses in the league. Sign me the f*** up and draft Saquon with confidence.
Wrapping Up
In an NFL where bell cow running backs are all but extinct, grabbing a legit RB1 late in your draft (Michel) or hitting on your first round pick in a big way (Saquon) are both moves that may just win you your league. As I discussed with Michel however, there is a reason that most of these guys aren’t going early in drafts. For every Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley, there are 10 Bishop Sankeys. Oh, you haven’t heard of him before? Exactly. Rookie running backs are definitely not a sure thing, but if you choose the right one you could be in line for fantasy football glory. Choose wrong however and you’ll be the laughing stock of your league, wasting a 4th or 5th round pick on a guy who doesn’t really provide anything to your roster. That is exactly what happened to me last season with Joe Mixon. I had a league where I was pretty reliant upon him, and as anyone who followed him knows, it did not go well. The thing with rookies is that you always have hope that things are going to get better, so I found myself rolling him out there week after week, and really suffering for it. It is so hard to recover from busts that early in a draft, so you need to really do your research and take the guy who you feel confident in. So step right up and take a chance on one of these rookie running backs. Laughing stock or champion, it’s up to you.
Intro
What’s up guys! Due to all the good feedback I got from my last fantasy football themed blog, I’m going to go down that road again today. Although I didn’t watch a ton of preseason football the other night with the exception of the first half of my Patriots, I did get a chance to watch 5 minute highlight reels from all the other games. Man, am I just excited that football is back and I don’t have to keep forcing myself to watch the Red Sox. That being said, as I try to pull meaningful analysis out of these relatively meaningless games, there is one major thing to keep in mind about preseason football in general. We need to remember that offenses are going to look really, really, really, really good in the preseason. In the regular season, defenses make and execute game plans for the specific team they are facing. For example, if you are playing a guy like Russell Wilson, the focus of the game plan may be to keep him contained in the pocket. In the preseason however, defenses don’t create specific game plans for the teams they are facing.The result is a pretty much vanilla defensive scheme that makes it very easy to run offense and move the ball in general.
The bottom line is that when you see rookies moving the ball down the field with ease and complete every pass they throw, try not to overreact too much. In addition to that advantage, rookie quarterbacks like Mayfield and Josh Allen typically don’t start the game for their respective teams. Their playing time taking place in the second half means that they are largely facing backups and sometimes guys who don’t have a shot in hell at making the 53 man roster. Although Mayfield looked pretty good against the Giants, just try to remember that come week 1, he is going to be facing players who are capable of starting in an NFL Game and not just guys who are going to be working at Chilis in a few months. While quarterback analysis may be a little futile, the position group that the preseason can tell us a lot about is running back. I find it incredibly important to see just how these rookie running backs stack up against seasoned veterans who are out there to start the games. Also, due to the fact that half the battle now is predicting playing time, how running backs look in the preseason can show us both who looks like the better player and who the team thinks is the better player. So while we realize that offensive production may be a little bit inflated, let’s get right into some things about those rookie running backs that jumped out to me the other night.
I’m Not Counting on Michel
Every year, I seem to go down the same road when it comes to drafting running backs in fantasy football. As anyone who reads me knows, I am a die hard Patriots Fan. Therefore, I usually try to get a couple of guys on my fantasy team who play for my real team to make watching the games more fun. I usually do this in the form of drafting whoever I think the best running back is in New England. Unfortunately for me however, I haven’t had much success with this, as the last time I actually hit on a Patriots running back was Stevan Ridley. So how is it possible that the running back for a team that is consistently a top offense in the NFL is so damn unreliable in fantasy football? Well folks, let me tell you. You know that really irritating running back by committee that everyone and their mother is using these days? Well the head coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick, invented and popularized the running back by committee approach. The thought being that instead of having one star running back, you can have several B to B+ running backs who excel in different situations.
For example, the Patriots usually have a receiving back, a power back, and an in between the 20s back. When the Patriots drafted Georgia’s Sony Michel this offseason however, I started to think that this year was going to be different. Michel is just one hell of a player, and I figured that Bill Belichick may be about to turn the backfield over to a clear top dog so to speak. Although I knew that he wouldn’t play absolutely every down, I expected him to get somewhere around 15-20 touches a game. In the Patriots’ Fantasy friendly offense, that easily would make him a top 10 running back, and an absolute steal in the middle rounds. That being said, I was really discouraged by what I saw the other night. Jeremy Hill, a guy who was all but left for dead last year in Cincinnati, is going to be a factor in this backfield. For those who aren’t very familiar with his play style, he is a 1 cut back who runs with power but has the burst to gash the defense for 20-25 yard runs on a consistent basis. The funny thing is, Hill reminds me a ton of his predecessor both at LSU and in New England, Stevan Ridley.
As I alluded to earlier, Ridley had a ton of success in New England before fumbles and an untimely ACL tear in his contract year derailed his Patriot and general NFL career. Bill Belichick has always liked power backs who don’t dance and get upfield, and that is exactly what Hill is. Aside from Hill, you have Burkehead, who Belichick really seems to like for some reason, Super Bowl Hero James White, and Game 1 star Mike Gillislee who all seem like legit threats to Michel’s playing time. If you put a gun to my head and make me pick who I think takes control of the backfield, I’d still go with Michel due to his huge talent edge, but I wouldn’t feel great about it. Michel had a ton of knee issues in college, and he’s already out due to a procedure where fluid was drained from his knee. With the Patriots knowing that they are going to make the playoffs as they do every year, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if they decide to be cautious with Michel, bringing him along slowly in order to make sure he is ready to be a factor when they need him come playoff time. The bottom line is that if you can get Michel as purely a wait and see bench player with him sliding in your draft due to injury, by all means pull the trigger. That being said, don’t put yourself in a position where you are reliant upon him, because all that will yield is frustration, and this is coming from a biased Patriots Fan.
I Feel so Bad for the Redskins
Last season was absolutely brutal for the Redskins. Although tons of teams use injuries as an excuse, the Redskins absolutely had my permission to do so last year. Seemingly all of their top offensive weapons and most importantly their offensive line sustained critical injuries early and often that made it impossible to field a competent unit. The issues were just as bad defensively, as I remember watching a game where the opposing quarterback was shredding Washington with no huddle because they didn’t have anyone able to play who knew how to audible defenses in the no huddle. It was something I had actually never seen before, and it is just crazy that plans A, B, C, D, and E were already injured. For all of us out there hoping that 2018 would be different for Washington, it doesn’t seem to be getting off to a good start.
On draft day, Redskins fans rejoiced when projected top pick Derrius Guice plummeted down the draft board and Washington selected him late in the 2nd round. Combining a stud power back like Guice with already established scat back Thompson would’ve given them one of the best duos in the league. Unfortunately however, Guice tore his ACL in their first preseason game against my Patriots. Fantasy football aside, I just feel horribly for the Redskins. Their promising rookie snuffed out for the year before we even see him on the field week 1. Guice was a guy who I was going to be targeting as a sleeper in a big way this season, but now we’re going to have to see another year of Rob Kelly. Poor Washington indeed.
Saquon is the Real Deal
When the Giants selected running back Saquon Barkley with the number 2 pick, I really didn’t like the move to say the least. With new head coach Pat Shurmur, confirmed quarterback guru and bright offensive mind, I thought it was an unbelievable opportunity for the franchise to insure they’d be in the mix for the foreseeable future. Letting Shurmur choose his quarterback and having the combination of say Sam Darnold and the guy who resurrected Case Keenum’s career on the Giants for the next decade seemed like a pretty great idea to me. Unfortunately for all you Giants Fans out there however, they decided to be a bit short sighted, and instead selected Saquon Barkley. Before everyone gets mad at me in the comments section, don’t get it twisted. I absolutely love Saquon Barkley, and think he is going to be one of the best backs in the league for a long time. That first run he had yesterday was jaw dropping to say the least. Certain backs out there go their whole careers without having a highlight reel run like that, and Saquon did it the first time he touched the ball in an NFL Game. Although I do hate the move longterm, man the short term is going to be fun.
In terms of Saquon’s Fantasy Prospects for the coming season, I would be completely fine with you pulling the trigger on him as early as 3rd overall. As I said earlier, I am incredibly high on Pat Shurmur. Watching the Vikings’ Offense last year, something I did quite a bit of because I had a large stake in McKinnon, was nothing short of unbelievable. Shurmur is definitely part of the McVay, Shanahan group of offensive play callers where it looks like they are playing chess, and other guys like Hue Jackson are playing checkers. As much as I love McKinnon though, he isn’t nearly the running back that Saquon Barkley is. I think that the Giants are going to be able to move the ball with ease this season, and I truly believe that they are going to be a force to be reckoned with. Expect a Rams type turn around for the G Men this season and for them to have a top scoring offense. If the Giants are going to be as good as I think they are, you are going to want Saquon on your team. The undisputed lead back in a high scoring offense is the dream, and that is exactly what he is. Extremely talented running back playing on one of the best offenses in the league. Sign me the f*** up and draft Saquon with confidence.
Wrapping Up
In an NFL where bell cow running backs are all but extinct, grabbing a legit RB1 late in your draft (Michel) or hitting on your first round pick in a big way (Saquon) are both moves that may just win you your league. As I discussed with Michel however, there is a reason that most of these guys aren’t going early in drafts. For every Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley, there are 10 Bishop Sankeys. Oh, you haven’t heard of him before? Exactly. Rookie running backs are definitely not a sure thing, but if you choose the right one you could be in line for fantasy football glory. Choose wrong however and you’ll be the laughing stock of your league, wasting a 4th or 5th round pick on a guy who doesn’t really provide anything to your roster. That is exactly what happened to me last season with Joe Mixon. I had a league where I was pretty reliant upon him, and as anyone who followed him knows, it did not go well. The thing with rookies is that you always have hope that things are going to get better, so I found myself rolling him out there week after week, and really suffering for it. It is so hard to recover from busts that early in a draft, so you need to really do your research and take the guy who you feel confident in. So step right up and take a chance on one of these rookie running backs. Laughing stock or champion, it’s up to you.
nbanflnobody 