Intro
Man, is it good to be back! For those of you living under a rock, we actually got to see some real life football a couple of days ago. Although it was the Hall of Fame Game and little to no players with promise actually played, it was still great to see some football. Watching RGIII running for his life back there brought back some memories to say the least, and it was just a ton of fun to watch. Due to the fact that we still have some time to kill before the season however, I decided to go in a little bit of a different direction than usual. Today we are going to talk a little fantasy football as opposed to my usual real football. The reason being that I recently had a chance to take a look at the ESPN Rankings, and a few of them made me scratch my head a little. I realize that we still have all of the preseason left for the rankings to shift, but I thought this would be a good chance to tell you guys about some players who I wouldn’t draft according to their current rankings. That being said, the title of this blog is a little bit misleading. To make things interesting, I only focused on players going in the top 20. Anyone can tell you not to draft Kendall Wright, and I honestly wanted a challenge. All of these players are absolute stars, and of course there comes a point where I’d be willing to pull the trigger. I would select the poster boy for this blog for example at pick 6 instead of pick 3. While 3 picks may not seem like a lot, you need a good first round pick to win your league, so yes, it is absolutely critical if you want to win. So without further ado, let’s get after it!
David Johnson
According to ESPN’s current rankings, Arizona Cardinals Running Back David Johnson is locked in as the 3rd overall pick. Although I do believe that Johnson is a talented player, top 3 is a little bit too early for my taste. The most concerning thing for me about selecting David Johnson that high is that he hasn’t really proven very much in the NFL. In his rookie season, Johnson was efficient to say the least, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The trouble was that he only carried the ball 125 times, and was primarily used as a change of pace back rather than an every down kind of guy. His sophomore season is the year we all know about, where Johnson carried fantasy teams everywhere with his absurd 16 game run, finishing with a whopping 373 total touches and 20 touchdowns! These are some incredible totals, and he was therefore selected very high up in drafts last year. Unfortunately for everyone who took him though, Johnson suffered a dislocated wrist week 1 that caused him to miss the entire season.
So that brings us to this season, and while I don’t hold a fluky wrist injury against him, we just have to accept that he only really has 1 year of elite NFL production under his belt. Therefore although he may seem like a slam dunk, we’ve seen guys like Peyton Hillis and Doug Martin fool us before, turning out to be 1 hit wonders instead of first round picks. To make matters worse for Johnson, brilliant offensive mind Bruce Arians has been replaced this year by Mike McCoy, which is a pretty substantial downgrade. Players who had breakout years under one coach switching coaches the next season is something that makes me really nervous, and that is pretty much Johnson’s situation. Coaching aside, the Cardinals are going to be an objectively bad NFL Team this year. They are almost certainly going to come in 3rd place or worse in their division, and are rebuilding in every sense of the word. It is because of this that if Johnson gets banged up towards the fantasy playoffs, I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets shut down because the Cardinals are out of actual playoff contention. The bottom line with Johnson is that although he is a great talent, he is going to face stacked boxes every time he lines up. Although I definitely see him putting up points due to absurd volume as both a runner and a receiver, I am really worried about him finishing the season. I never like to spend such a high pick on a guy whose team isn’t likely to be in the playoff hunt, and it is because of all this that I’ll be looking elsewhere if I find myself on the clock at number 3.
Antonio Brown
Now before everyone gets angry at me, just hear me out. Antonio Brown is slotted in at 4th overall according to ESPN’s Fantasy Rankings. The issue is that behind him at 5th, 6th, and 7th sit three absolute stud running backs in Zeke, Saquon and Kamara. The fact that Antonio Brown will most likely not be on my team this year has absolutely nothing to do with him as a player. He is easily the best receiver in football, and before you ask I am not worried at all about the Madden Curse. When I draft however, I almost always take a running back in the first round. Due to the fact that the NFL has truly become a passing league, there are just so many great receivers out there who can give you solid production week to week. You can get a guy like Randell Cobb for example, the number 2 target for Aaron Rodgers, all the way down at pick 71. If you were trying to take a running back at pick 71 however, you’d end up with Duke Johnson, a guy who may be the 3rd best running back on his own team that just so happened to win 1 game over the past 2 years. The bottom line is that in an NFL where bell cow type running backs are going extinct, you just can’t afford to miss out on guys like Saquon or Elliott. If those 3 players plus Bell, Gurley, and Johnson are all off the board, I would have to think really hard about pulling the trigger on Brown, but I would still probably end up taking a running back. It gets really ugly really quickly, and you have to make sure you get a stud running back early if you don’t want to make things difficult for yourself throughout the later rounds.
Dalvin Cook
As we all know, Minnesota Vikings’ running back Dalvin Cook was having a phenomenal rookie season when he sadly tore his ACL. Less than a year removed from that injury, Cook is sitting at number 12 on ESPN’s Rankings. While I definitely believe in the mantra early and often on running backs, Cook at 12 is a little rich for my blood. Although modern medicine has definitely come a long way, we have to remember that he is still coming back from a very major knee injury. Although players certainly do successfully come back from ACL surgery and look like themselves again, Cook just makes me really nervous. That combined with the fact that Latavius Murray, a guy who played really well for them last year, is still in town makes me think that Cook may not play every down at least early in the year. Apart from that, the biggest issue for me is that although he is incredibly talented, Cook just doesn’t have a lot of NFL experience. He played in a few games last season, and now has to jump back into the process of getting acclimated to the NFL game while coming off of major knee surgery. To make things even worse, Cook’s brilliant offensive coordinator last season, Pat Shurmur, is going to be calling the plays in New York. So to review, we have a guy who hasn’t even finished 4 NFL Games in his career, is coming off major knee surgery, and to top it all off has a new offensive coordinator. Yeah, I think I’ll let someone else take that risk. The bottom line is I’m looking elsewhere at guys like Fournette and Gordon if I’m on the clock at number 12.
Wrapping Up
So there you have it, a few guys who I’d definitely steer clear of if possible when you are drafting over the next month or so. Again, before anyone gets trigged in the comment section, I WOULD TAKE THESE PLAYERS AT SOME POINT. I am not saying that they are going to be busts. I am just saying that at their current draft position I would rather have guys going later than them. In terms of talking fantasy football, definitely let me know in the comment section if you guys like this, or if you’d rather see me go back to strictly blogging about actual football. That being said, I have 1 more fantasy football blog that I’m definitely doing that people should be looking forward to. The past 2 years, I’ve made an Excel Spreadsheet guiding my aunt, who knows absolutely nothing about fantasy football, through her draft for her work league. The reason why it might be interesting to see this spreadsheet in blog form however is due to the fact that by using it, she’s won her league the past 2 seasons. So stay tuned on that front, and I’ll be back with another blog next week. One last thing. Enjoy week 1 of the preseason. Yes, I know that most of the players out there are fighting for roster spots, but it shouldn’t matter to all the true fans out there. Football is fu***** back, and although I do love the summer, my favorite time of year is just weeks away.
nbanflnobody 