The man who I affectionately call Captain Kirk has plenty of reasons to celebrate this offseason. After a couple years playing under the franchise tag, putting himself at risk to suffer a devastating injury that would keep him from getting his long term payday that he deserves, Cousins has finally made it. The Redskins put all the speculation that they were going to franchise tag him an insane 3rd year in a row to rest when they traded for Alex Smith in the beginning of the offseason. Smith is now poised to take over the starting job, and Cousins is poised to get PAID in a big way. In an NFL where each quarterback contract seems more ridiculous than the last, Cousins is the headliner in a pretty solid free agent class at the quarterback position. Just so you all know that I haven’t lost my mind, I am not saying that Cousins is better than Brees or Rodgers. I am not counting Brees or Rodgers in this discussion because I think that they are both locks to go back to their teams. They are free agents only in name, and will sign their extensions to stay put. If either Brees or Rodgers decides to shock the world and test the market however, Cousins will no longer be the prized quarterback this offseason. I definitely don’t see this happening though, so Cousins is the top quarterback available in 2018.
Before we go into detail about where Cousins will end up this summer, let’s talk about why he is such a prize this offseason. After the Redskins traded up to the number 2 pick in the 2012 draft with a historically huge package of future picks to select RGIII, it seemed like they were all set at the quarterback position. They now had an absolute monster of an athlete and an all around dynamic playmaker behind the wheel of their offense, and things looked very bright in Washington. That is why it was so bizarre when the Redskins spent their 4th round pick on Kirk Cousins out of Michigan State. Cousins wasn’t the explosive player RGIII was to say the least, and didn’t project to be a star at the next level to say the least. I remember seeing this pick at the time and laughing about how stupid the Redskins were. Sure, RGIII had his injury issues and you needed a backup, but spending a fourth round pick on a quarterback was like spending all your money on a paint job for your car when it doesn’t have any tires. The Redskins mortgaged their future when they traded to the number 2 pick, and they needed to take advantage of every draft pick they could find in order to get a talented roster to put around their new quarterback. That is why it was so dumb to take Cousins when they had a million other holes to fill. Basically, it was a luxury pick when the team needed to make necessity picks. But life went on for the Redskins, and the 2012 season was underway.
What ensued was a magical season for the Redskins that ended with RGIII winning rookie of the year. Cousins on the other hand didn’t play much but was actually incredibly effective when he did get the nod in week 14 due to an RGIII injury. He threw for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing an absurd 70% of his passes, good for a 104 quarterback rating. The Redskins would win the game in blowout fashion behind the strong game from Cousins, but RGIII would reclaim the job when he was healthy in week 15. The Redskins would actually make the playoffs, taking on the Seattle Seahawks in one of the cringe-worthiest games I’ve ever seen. From the first snap it was clear that RGIII wasn’t right, and he was basically playing on one knee. He gutted it out but played very poorly, until he was finally pulled from the game late. Year 1 was over for both quarterbacks, and although it was a great season overall, the sour ending would be a sign of things to come for the former number 2 pick. The next season was an absolute dumpster fire for the Redskins as well as for their young quarterbacks. Griffin didn’t look the same coming off of his injury, and Cousins was pretty ineffective when he got the nod to play. The team would go 3 and 13 in the lost season of 2013, and it would ultimately end in the firing of the coaching staff. In the first year of the new regime of talented young offensive minds Jay Gruden and Sean McVay, both Cousins and RGIII struggled yet again. The Redskins would go 4 and 12 behind another year of indecisively starting quarterbacks on a game to game basis.
After this awful first season at the helm, Gruden decided that he had had enough of the indecisiveness at quarterback. That offseason, the Redskins cut ties with Griffin, and moved forward fully committed to Kirk Cousins. After a training camp where Cousins could focus solely on improving his game and not on winning a competition, Kirk responded in a huge way in 2015. He started all 16 games, throwing for 4166 yards, 26 scores, just 11 picks, on an absurd 70% completion percentage, good for a 101 quarterback rating. Cousins was playing with a ton of confidence, and had seemingly turned into a great quarterback overnight due to the tutelage and confidence shown in him from Gruden and McVay. The Redskins would lose their playoff game against Rodgers and the Packers, but they had plenty of reasons to be optimistic about their future with Cousins. Unfortunately for the Redskins however, he was due to hit free agency that offseason, and he had a ton of leverage to say the least. Fortunately for them however, they were able to take advantage of the franchise tag, and put off giving him a long term deal until the next offseason. Cousins responded with another great season in 2016, throwing for 4917 yards, 25 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, with another great completion percentage of 67%. Although the Redskins would miss the playoffs, this had nothing to do with the play by Cousins. He was masterful, but the rest of the roster lacked talent to say the least. They were still reeling from giving up all those picks, and it definitely showed with their horrible defense losing them games even though Cousins and the offense were humming.
That offseason, McVay left town for a head coaching job in LA, and Cousins and the Redskins would start the season without their offensive coordinator. Cousins was tagged for the second time, again denied the longterm deal he wanted. The team went 7 and 9 behind a solid statistical year from Cousins, although he failed to put up the elite numbers he had in the 2 seasons prior. Cousins threw for 4093 yards, 27 scores and 13 picks, while completing 64.3 percent of his passes. Although these numbers would be considered excellent for certain quarterbacks, it was a disappointment for Cousins as he failed to take a step forward in 2017 as many had predicted he would. While there are several factors that surely contributed to this, including the departure of his brilliant offensive coordinator, there was one main reason why he regressed. That was due to the fact that the Redskins might have had one of the NFL’s worst rosters going into the season, and they suffered an absurd number of injuries. Their star tight end Jordan Reed, Cousins’ best weapon, missed the majority of the season. Their offseason signee Terrelle Prior, who was supposed to be his top outside target, played horribly throughout the year. They had a complete lack of a running game, and offensive linemen were getting hurt at a ridiculous rate. Guys were being signed off the street and put into the game to block for Cousins. To put this into perspective, the Redskins used an insane 36 unique combinations of offensive linemen throughout the season!
The season is only 16 games, so on average, they didn’t finish each game with the same offensive line unit they started with. To make matters worse for Cousins however, the defense was absolutely awful. The defense didn’t put up much of a fight to say the least, and finished the season allowing the 5th most points in the NFL! If you combine that awful defense with their putrid offensive personnel surrounding Cousins, you would expect them to be a 2 or 3 win team at best. However, the Redskins were able to actually secure a 7 and 9 record due to Cousins’ brilliance throughout the season. The thing to take away from the 2017 season is that the Redskins were absolutely nothing without Kirk Cousins. He willed that team to a 7 and 9 record, and honestly, I think that it was his greatest accomplishment of his career. Even though he put up some nice stats before, Cousins showed that he was a guy who could win games even when things weren’t going perfectly, and that is incredibly important when talking about a franchise quarterback. Hell, Blake Bortles can win games when he has a great defense, and a great supporting cast. It takes a special quarterback however to win games when he doesn’t have 1 or either of those things, and that is exactly what Cousins did this season.
So that brings us up to present day, where Cousins is just days away from hitting the open market and having his pick of where he wants to play next season and beyond. Although I am very against paying average quarterbacks a ton of money, I believe that Cousins is absolutely not an average quarterback. He has proved in his excellence throughout his entire 3 year body of work as the unquestioned starter with little to no supporting cast that he is already a special elite quarterback in this league. Although he isn’t exactly young, and will be 30 during next season, he isn’t old to say the least. Cousins isn’t a guy who relies too much on his mobility, so his game should age pretty well. There is also the fact that with today’s advanced medicine and training techniques, Cousins most likely has 5 or more solid, prime years left. He will most likely improve before he declines, and there is no telling what the ceiling is for him. We’ve seen him play so well with an elite coaching staff and a subpar supporting cast that it is crazy to think about how well he could play with a good supporting cast both offensively and defensively. As long as the money isn’t too insane to the point that the team won’t be able to give him that supporting cast, signing Cousins absolutely has my stamp of approval. That being said, there are 3 main teams that have been rumored to be in the mix in terms of acquiring Cousins’ services. Those teams are the Broncos, Jets, and Vikings. Although there are plenty of rumors circulating about whether or not these teams are actually going to make him offers, we are just going to assume that they are for the sake of this writing. So without further ado, let’s get right into it and figure out what landing spot is the best for Kirk Cousins!
New York Jets
Although the Jets haven’t been a great team throughout the past few years, they actually are a somewhat attractive destination for Cousins. First and foremost, they can by far offer him the most money due to the fact that they don’t have a ton of talent on their roster to say the least. I’ve even heard rumors that the Jets would like to front load the deal, giving him a ridiculous 60 million guaranteed in the first year alone! At the end of the day, we have to remember that football is a business, and Cousins is a human being, not just a quarterback looking to win football games. That kind of financial stability is incredibly attractive to a guy like Cousins especially after he was denied it for the past couple of years, playing on the franchise tag. Honestly, I wouldn’t really fault Cousins if he decided to join the Jets just on money alone. In sports today, there is definitely a huge stigma about on athlete just taking the best contract he is offered, and that is something that I absolutely don’t understand. Think about it this way. If you were looking for a job, would you take a significant pay cut for a better job even if they were both the same hours? Hell no, or at least I certainly wouldn’t. At the end of the day, the reason why people work is to make money, so why wouldn’t you try to maximize your earnings? That is exactly what Cousins will be doing if he choses to sign with the Jets, and honestly, I can’t fault him for it.
Looking past the money however, the Jets don’t really have much to offer a guy like Cousins. The above chart shows a breakdown of grades for each position group for each team in the NFL. As you can see, the Jets are at the bottom of the list, with a red, or bad, grade in 8 of the 10 position groups! Their team best 1.7 safety group would actually be the worst position group on the Eagles! Watching them play this season, it was clear that the Jets lacked talent, but looking at this chart it is clear that it is even worse than that. The Jets as they are currently constructed are completely without talent! This horrible roster would be much worse than anything Cousins has ever dealt with in Washington, and honestly, I don’t see an easy path to fixing it. Building a talented 53 man roster from scratch, pretty much what the Jets need to do, is impossible to do overnight. It is a process that is going to take many years, with smart drafting, and smart moves in free agency. I honestly don’t see the Jets having a middle of the road roster for at least another 2 to 3 years at the earliest. A complete rebuild is exactly what the Jets are, and that might be a situation that Cousins should aim to avoid due to the fact that he is in his prime. In terms of the coaching staff, I like Todd Bowles as a head coach, but I honestly don’t know how long he is going to be around. I was pretty surprised he wasn’t fired this season, and I think he will definitely be canned if the team is bad again this year, which they will be due to the fact that they have no talent. Even with Cousins in the fold, and after free agency, I’d guess their record would be somewhere around 6-10, not enough to save Bowles’ job.
So if he gets fired after year one, Cousins goes into year 2 with a completely new coach and system. That season would be brutal, as the talent wouldn’t be there yet and Cousins would be in his second straight season of having to learn a brand new offensive scheme. So that puts us at year 3 before Cousins even has a chance to make some noise in the playoffs. Considering the fact that Cousins will most likely sign a 4 or 5 year deal, he will have some time to make things work in New York, but the team’s location is something that will be a huge problem for him. The New York Media is vicious, and they seem to constantly look for a scapegoat for their team’s incompetence. A quarterback who hasn’t won a playoff game on a huge contract and isn’t playing as well as he did before the contract seems like a perfect candidate. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the media had completely turned on Cousins by the end of year 2, which would make the fans turn on him as well. Cousins could honestly be looking at getting booed at home games as early as year 3 before he has had a legitimate chance to win football games on a consistent basis! All this being said, even though the money is more with the Jets, I don’t think this is the right move. I can’t judge Cousins if he decides to take the bag and go to the losing situation, but I believe that it would be incredibly short cited. He would simply be cashing in all his chips right now, and minimize his potential of earning money both in endorsements and the next time he hits free agency. The bottom line is that I can understand choosing New York, but it absolutely seems like a mistake.
Minnesota Vikings
If I am the Minnesota Vikings, I am doing literally everything in my power to sign Cousins. Yes, the Vikings are fresh off of an NFC Championship Game appearance and one of the most memorable playoff wins I’ve ever seen, but we have to keep in mind that this was a down year in the NFC to say the least. Rodgers was hurt, Zeke was suspended, Seattle was a mess. There is also the fact that the Eagles are going to be much better due to the fact that Wentz is returning, even though Foles played well enough to both blow out the Vikings and win a Super Bowl. The bottom line is that there are going to be at least 4 much improved, Super Bowl Contenting teams in the NFC than there were last year. There is also the fact that the young, up and coming powerhouses that are the 49ers with Shannahan and Jimmy G and the Rams with McVay will be a year older and more ready to make some noise come playoff time. Basically, the NFC is going to have 7 very good teams jostling for a trip to the Super Bowl, and that is without including a team like the Falcons who were down this year and could also be poised for a run. The bottom line is that the NFC is going to be really tough to win next year, and although I love Keenum, the Vikings are doomed if they stand pat. In a league where teams improve so much year to year, you are screwed if you don’t make any major improvements, and that is exactly what the Vikings would do if they kept Keenum as their starter. To make things more desperate for the Vikings, their team is starting to get a little long in the tooth. Although they have plenty of young stars like Cook and Diggs, the majority of their incredibly talented roster is firmly in their primes. This means that if the Vikings are going to make a run at winning a Super Bowl, they have to do it now, and they have to do everything they possibly can to put themselves in the best position to win these next 3 years or so.
That is exactly what they would be doing if they signed Cousins, a guy who excelled so much with a complete lack of talent around him for his entire career up to this point. If you gave him a good defense, a talented receiving corps, and a running back as talented as Cook, it is truly staggering to think about what he could accomplish with the Vikings. The Vikings would go from a great team to an elite team overnight, and they would absolutely be in a position to win a Super Bowl. At the end of the day however, I still think the most likely outcome for the Vikings is hosting a playoff game wildcard weekend instead of having a bye as they did this year. So that means that they would have to win 3 tough playoff games against very good teams to make it to the big game. Although this could definitely happen with Cousins in the fold, truly anything can happen in playoff games. There is almost no margin for error, and a costly turnover or a big play surrendered by the defense can mean going home. It is due to the difficulty of winning 3 consecutive playoff games that by the numbers, the Vikings probably won’t reach a Super Bowl next season even with Cousins. They will also most likely face the same brutal road in the next couple of seasons. If they fail to make the Super Bowl by the end of year 3, then the roster around Cousins will be largely outside of its prime. The Vikings will be entering rebuild mode and Cousins will most likely hit free agency once again. However, the outlook wouldn’t be great as his time in Minnesota would most likely be seen as a failure. Although it was a much easier path than Cousins faced, all the fans will remember is that Keenum was one game away from taking them to a Super Bowl, and Cousins wasn’t. This and the fact that he will be 33 years old means that he will have a pretty good argument against him for landing another big contract.
In terms of the actual money of the contract, I have seen it rumored that the Vikings are most likely going to offer him a 3 year deal worth a ton of money. It seems like they view things in the same manner that I do, and they know that signing Cousins and going for it the next 3 years is their best and only option. Although this would be a great move for the Vikings, I honestly don’t think it is a great move for Cousins. As I laid out in the previous paragraph, Cousins will have tremendous expectations from Vikings Fans and NFL Fans alike. If he doesn’t lead them to at least a top 4 finish in the NFL in his 3 years with the Vikings, then his time with the team will be considered a failure no matter how well he plays. So to review, he most likely will be seen as a failure leaving Minnesota, and won’t be in the best position to sign another big contract once this one is up. That being said, there is a chance that this move could pay off in a huge way for Cousins. From a pure talent standpoint, I believe that this roster is the best that Cousins could potentially join this offseason. If he wants to completely bet on himself, and truly believes that he will at least be able to take this team to a Super Bowl in the next 3 years, then this is the move to make. Although it would be an incredibly tough road, Cousins would absolutely have a chance to do it, and then go down in Vikings lore as the guy who finally won them the Championship that they have craved for so long. The bottom line about the Vikings is that it is the destination of extremes. It could either prove to be a horrible decision for a future or a great decision for his future. There is however only one way to find out, and if Cousins is feeling lucky, then he will do just that.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are an intriguing destination for Cousins to say the least. Although their defense is aging, and they lost elite corner Aqib Talib to a trade this offseason, they should still have a few more elite years left in them if they aren’t demoralized like they were this year. Due to the fact that they were always on the field because of their putrid offense, the defense of the Broncos looked incredibly frustrated all year, and their season was viewed as a disappointment by most NFL Fans. If you look closer at the numbers however, the Broncos Defense had a pretty solid year despite the tough circumstances. They actually finished 3rd in the league in terms of least yards allowed, a very bizarre statistic seeing as they finished 22nd in terms of fewest points allowed. If you think about it however, it makes sense as the Broncos were giving up points, but not a lot of yards due to the fact that their offense kept putting them in brutal field position situations. All this being said, I believe that if you give them a competent offense to work with, the Denver Defense can get back to being elite with better field position situations and more rest throughout games. That is exactly what will happen if Cousins joins the team. Offensively, the Broncos have a ton of talent to say the least. They have CJ Anderson in the backfield, a guy who I have long thought was incredibly underrated. Even though he was seen as a guy who had a down year last year, he was actually graded as a top 10 running back according to Pro Football Focus. The Broncos also have 2 elite veteran receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, both guys who I believe will be rejuvenated with a good quarterback in the fold.
Although the offensive line is shaky, the Broncos have the 5th pick in the draft, and can take the guard from Notre Dame to solidify the unit. The bottom line is that if the Broncos are able to take some good offensive linemen early in this years draft, they will be handing Cousins the keys to an absolute Ferrari of a team. In the couple of years after Peyton Manning retired, the Broncos have had pretty much the same team in place, but were missing an elite quarterback to sit in the drivers seat. With Cousins, they would absolutely have that, and I’ll tell you what, that makes me incredibly nervous as a Patriots Fan. Speaking of my Patriots, the other thing the Broncos have going for them apart from their tremendous roster is the fact that the AFC is much weaker than the NFC. Even though I think the Titans, Texans, Chargers and Colts are going to be much improved this season, the only teams that I think would be real threats to this Broncos team are the Patriots and the Steelers. That being said, I don’t think the Steelers would be as good as this Broncos team, and I would actually pick the Broncos if they faced off in a playoff game. So that would put Cousins in a two horse race to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. While facing the greatest quarterback of all time does seem daunting at first glance, the Broncos are the one team in the NFL who have given Brady fits throughout his career. For whatever reason, Tom just hasn’t seemed to play well against them, dating back to his first career playoff loss against the Broncos in 2003. Although I would still pick the Patriots in a playoff game against Denver due to the fact I’m a homer, I wouldn’t feel good about it to say the least.
In terms of the actual contract, the Broncos will be able to offer Cousins a similar 3 year deal worth roughly the same amount of money as the Vikings. The Broncos are also in the situation where their team is getting old, and fast, and they have to make a run at this thing in the next 3 years or so before going into complete rebuild mode. So to recap, the Broncos offer Cousins the reigns to an absolutely phenomenal roster in a very wide open conference. If I were in Cousins’ shoes, I would be very excited about this offer. If he does manage to take down New England and reach the Super Bowl in his 3 years in Denver, then his time will be absolutely considered a success. There is also the fact that even though the Broncos did win a Super Bowl recently, the fans are coming off of watching 2 incredibly disappointing seasons in a row. That being said, even if Cousins loses to the Patriots every year and doesn’t manage to make the Super Bowl, I’m not so sure that the tenure will be considered a failure. I can almost guarantee you that he will put up some pretty great numbers with that kind of talent around him, and that along with some deep playoff runs might be enough to make this 3 years a success. So basically, the Broncos offer Cousins a great way to both have fun and win now, and put himself in a great position to land another big contract when he hits free agency again at 33.
The Decision: Denver Broncos
Honestly, this choice wasn’t as hard as I thought it was going to be. The easiest part of it was eliminating the Jets, as I believe that they are clearly the worst option for Kirk. Although the deal will get him the most money in the short term, I feel like he will be minimizing his chances of landing another big contract at the end of this one if he signs with the Jets. Things got a little tougher when deciding between the Broncos and the Vikings. When you think about it however, they are pretty much the same situation personnel wise. Both teams have an aging but very good roster on both sides of the ball and are just missing a quarterback. Both teams are also staring down a complete rebuild in roughly 3 years, conveniently the time when Cousins’ deal will run out. So what is different about the situations that made me choose Denver you ask? First, there is the fact that I believe expectations will be much higher in Minnesota. Replacing a fan favorite on a team that was one game away from a Super Bowl is a lot harder than joining a team that is coming off of consecutive losing seasons and horrible quarterback play. If Cousins is even competent at quarterback, the fans will be happy in Denver, as he would be an improvement from what they had before. The other reason is that the Broncos are in the AFC and have a much easier road to the Super Bowl than the Vikings who are in the loaded NFC. At the end of the day, the situation is rather simple. The Broncos give Cousins the best chance to both win now and set himself up for another monster contract in the 2021 offseason either from the Broncos or someone else in free agency. As a Cousins fan, I really hope he decides to go to Denver, but I’ll be honest with you guys. As a Patriots fan, I am praying that he is wearing literally any other uniform when we kick off the 2018 season.
nbanflnobody 